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 Presidential Campaign 2012

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Forsaken Lament 44
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PostSubject: Presidential Campaign 2012    Fri Dec 09, 2011 4:01 pm

If you're a political junkie like me, I'm sure you've been paying close attention to the Republican primary race which has been incredibly interesting so far...and I'm not even a Republican! So I'd like to start a thread for the race which we can use all the way through the election next November.

I'm going to say how interesting the whole Donald Trump debacle is. I watched an interview with him on CNN yesterday where he bashed all the candidates who declined to attend his debate, including Romney. As of today, it looks like Perry AND Bachmann have declined his invitation as well, leaving only Gingrich and Santorum, which would be pretty funny if they were the only two attendees...personally I think Trump's ego is waaay to inflated for his own good...and in a way, I have to applaud the other candidates for turning him down, even if I don't care for them. I personally like Gingrich the most out of all of the candidates, but I think his accepting the invitation was just a strategic move to get Trump's endorsement...and not a shameless one.

Trump should cancel this ridiculous circus...it's really pretty pathetic.

Smashed, I know you'll have an opinion on this...I can't wait to hear it! Very Happy

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Last edited by SmashedBrother on Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:51 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Grammer Nazi: - Say, not Saying. 4th word, paragraph 2. :p)
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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Fri Dec 09, 2011 4:23 pm

There was a site that I was linked to once, which I sadly can't find now, which calculated how close the 2012 race would be based on approval ratings and economic growth. I'm really mad I can't find it now because it was a pretty neat concept. But basically, at least at the time, it said that the most 'exciting' race would be between Obama and Huntsman with economic growth of about 2.6%, suggesting it could be a 50/50 chance of either winning.

As for Trump, Bill Cosby sums up my feelings pretty well: "He needs to either run or shut up."
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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:06 pm

Interesting..I'd like to see that, though I'm not sure how useful it would be at this point. As anyone who follows politics knows, a month is like an eternity in the world of Presidential debates, polls, etc. I do agree that a Huntsman/Obama election would be enormously interesting and would, in my opinion, be good for the country.

Speaking of Huntsman, I'd like to post the Gingrich/Huntsman debate which is modeled after the Lincoln/Douglas debates of the 1850's...



If you take the time to watch this debate, you immediately notice the lack of political slogans and rhetoric, and especially attacks. This is a respectful and substantive debate which is a fantastic medium with which to display the expertise and viewpoints of very intellectual and thoughtful candidates. You have to ask: could Bachmann or Perry really preform in such a debate? Could they talk at length without aides or rhetorical bulletpoints with which to guide their speech? This debate is exactly what this country needs; we need intellectuals who portray the presidency as a position of great respect, not a media circus of cheap attack adds and campaign slogans from over-zealous and under-qualified candidates. Kudos to Huntsman and Gingrich for their stellar performance here.

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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:12 am

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:

Smashed, I know you'll have an opinion on this...I can't wait to hear it! Very Happy

Haha, how did you guess??

It certainly has been quite interesting, although it more like watching a train wreck than a Presidential race. Neutral Personally, I really haven't been able to find a candidate who really shares my views, and seems capable of actually implementing them.

Gingrich is.....erratic at time, and likes to pursue intellectual fads.....Bachmann doesn't really seem to know what she's doing, let alone the job she's angling for......Romnies are..all over the place....They have so little spine, I doubt they know what they stand for themselves! (Intentionally pluralized Wink ) Paul........is the comic relief?

At the same time, Obama....well.....I'm sorry, but like I said earlier: A guy who can vote to let babies who survive abortions die anyway, or say that supporting Terri Shievo's right to life was his worst mistake.......that man doesn't deserve to be president. I can't really say that I agree with his socialist approach to economics either..... (and yes, agree with him or not, things like mandated healthcare and stimulus plans are socialist in nature)

It's a pretty bleak field, from my perspective. I'm hoping that Santorum has a surge before Iowa, since he seems to be a decent candidate, at least at first couple of glances. As things stand, I'll probably wind up voting for Gingrich in primary, and having to hold my nose for Romney in the general......

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:

Trump should cancel this ridiculous circus...it's really pretty pathetic.
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Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:
..and in a way, I have to applaud the other candidates for turning him down, even if I don't care for them. I personally like Gingrich the most out of all of the candidates, but I think his accepting the invitation was just a strategic move to get Trump's endorsement...and not a shameless one.

While I'm equally disguested with Trump, I don't hold it against either Gingrich or Santorum. After all, in a race this tight, they need all the exposure they can get. Although Bachmann really disgusted me by sniping at Gingrich and Santorum, only to turn around and accept the invitiation herself Rolling Eyes

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:


If you take the time to watch this debate, you immediately notice the lack of political slogans and rhetoric, and especially attacks. This is a respectful and substantive debate which is a fantastic medium with which to display the expertise and viewpoints of very intellectual and thoughtful candidates.


Well, I'm afraid Youtube isn't working for me again....at least, the video cuts off well before I finish, regardless of what I try. Still, while I'm not exactly comfortable with Huntsman either, he deserves some respect if he keeps that kind of a tone throughout his campaign.....it's more than some others can claim...

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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:05 pm

Well, Iowa was certainly an interesting start to the actual voting. With a virtual tie between Romney and Santorum, Santorum seems to have become a bit more of a factor, although it's a bit late in the game.........still, he's gaining traction....

Sadly, Gingrich seems to be fading out. He's currently placed in fifth in NH, and third nationally......Honestly, I expect Romney to win the nomination at this point, and lose the general. Still, his low ceiling gives some room for somebody better to pull an upset......who knows?

My 0.2




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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:36 am

Agreed, Smashed. Sadly, Romney has the momentum, especially after an all but certain victory in New Hampshire....having said that, I completely agree that the Republican party is still searching FRANTICALLY for ANYONE BUT ROMNEY. I'd argue that Santorum is not that somebody, I think both he AND Paul have already reached their peak in Iowa, and it's only a downward slide from there. Taking that into account, the only other option besides holding your nose for Romney is a resurgent and combative Gingrich, or perhaps a Huntsman surge...which would be the most beneficial to the country, in my opinion. As for Perry, it's laughable he's continuing.

Regardless, if Romney is the nominee, Obama will win. The Tea Party and hard-core conservatives will not be invigorated by him, nor will Evangelicals. He will be popular with the so called "Country Club" Republicans certainly, which will play right into Obama's strategy of fairness to the middle class. Romney's nomination may also stoke the flames of the Occupy Wall Street Movement, which will see Romney (whose net-worth is over $250 Million) as the poster-child for the increasingly-hated "%1". It could create a very interesting situation...and the only joy I'll get out of a Romney nomination is watching Obama rip him to shreds. Twisted Evil

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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:31 am

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:
Agreed, Smashed. Sadly, Romney has the momentum, especially after an all but certain victory in New Hampshire....having said that, I completely agree that the Republican party is still searching FRANTICALLY for ANYONE BUT ROMNEY. I'd argue that Santorum is not that somebody, I think both he AND Paul have already reached their peak in Iowa, and it's only a downward slide from there. Taking that into account, the only other option besides holding your nose for Romney is a resurgent and combative Gingrich, or perhaps a Huntsman surge...which would be the most beneficial to the country, in my opinion. As for Perry, it's laughable he's continuing.

Honestly, I don't think anyone is that somebody. In that much, I'll agree. I'm curious as to why you think Santorum is as Paul? Granted, like I said above, the odds favor Romney, but neither Santorum nor Gingrich has an edge as of yet. EDIT: The SC primary definitely gave Gingrich one heck of an edge. I'll grant you that.


Personally speaking, I respect them both but I'm leaning towards Santorum at this point. Sadly, with Romney having the 'momentum', both are longshots.

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:

Regardless, if Romney is the nominee, Obama will win. The Tea Party and hard-core conservatives will not be invigorated by him, nor will Evangelicals. He will be popular with the so called "Country Club" Republicans certainly, which will play right into Obama's strategy of fairness to the middle class. Romney's nomination may also stoke the flames of the Occupy Wall Street Movement, which will see Romney (whose net-worth is over $250 Million) as the poster-child for the increasingly-hated "%1". It could create a very interesting situation...and the only joy I'll get out of a Romney nomination is watching Obama rip him to shreds. Twisted Evil

For what it's worth, according to Rasmussen, Obama's strength lies mostly with the lower and (barely) upper income brackets, while he tends to suffer outside of those two. (Not that Romney is likely to be competitive that way)

Honestly, in the likely scenerio that it comes down to Romney vs. Obama, watching Romney go down in flames is the only pleasure I'll have. That, and comparing the two....it's almost funny how similar they are, when you think about it.

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The war to end all Waaars is coming.

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Last edited by SmashedBrother on Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:09 am; edited 5 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:33 am

For a more positive topic, I'm curious, what would your ideal candidate be like?

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The war to end all Waaars is coming.

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The Grim(lin) reaper has come!

Jordan.....Prepare for the Geno-cide!

We shall Battle and you shall Cry!

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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Mon Jan 23, 2012 3:25 am

Well Smashed, not sure if you've been following, but last week was one of heck of a roller coaster ride in South Carolina! Gingrich BLASTED Romney out of the water and made one of the most stunning comebacks in Primary history...truly shocking! At this time last week, I thought for sure that Romney would have 3 wins by now, ensuring his nomination. But what a difference a week makes! I'll tell you, it was soooo satisfying to see Romney stumble and fumble in the debates over his taxes and Bain Capital...really quite riveting.

Now of course, the question of whether or not this momentum will carry Gingrich to a second win is a WAY up in the air, especially since Romney will viciously strike back (actually, he's already started just this morning), and Gingrich does tend to be a bit unpredictable. But I'll keep my fingers crossed...since I'll take ANYONE over Romney.

As to your question about Santorum and Paul, I think the answers should be a bit more clear now. Santorum is a good man, and has my respect. Despite this, however, I think he's still relatively young, inexperienced, and a bit one-note to be a serious general-election candidate. Much like Mike Huckabee, he's appealing to social conservatives, but that's about it. He's not a complete enough package to seriously go the distance, and I think his results thus-far prove this point. As for Paul, I don't think I need to elaborate. Rolling Eyes

I'm interested to know your feelings on the race thus far. How did you feel about Gingrich's response to the marital question at the CNN debate? Was the question-and more to the point: the interview with his ex-wife-justified only 2 days before the primary? Do you think Gingrich can maintain the momentum? Or will Romney regain his composure and take Florida??

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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Thu Feb 09, 2012 4:59 am

Sorry for taking so long to get around to writing this post....for some stupid reason, I thought I had already responded. Hopefully it's readable, given that I wrote this pretty late.

Not sure if you've heard, but Romney had another bad night. Santorum had a grand slam - Missouri and Minesota went for Santorum big time, and he managed to pull out a strong victory in Colorado. (despite Romney virtually camping there all year) Not bad Cool

Of course, this means that within the next 72 hours, we'll know just about everything Romney has to throw at Santorum. How things go from there is anybody's guess at this point.....

I expect Michigan is going to be the next major battlefield - all three candidates are apparently focusing there now, so I think that's a safe bet. Wink

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:
Now of course, the question of whether or not this momentum will carry Gingrich to a second win is a WAY up in the air, especially since Romney will viciously strike back (actually, he's already started just this morning), and Gingrich does tend to be a bit unpredictable. But I'll keep my fingers crossed...since I'll take ANYONE over Romney.

Well, as of this point, I'd say you aren't alone in that last sentiment. The race is fluctuating wildly based mainly on who people think can beat Romney. Thus, Gingrich in S.C., and the three states going for Santorum tonight. With any luck, one of them will settle into that role so Romney can't sqeak through.

Here's keeping my fingers crossed too....

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:

As to your question about Santorum and Paul, I think the answers should be a bit more clear now. Santorum is a good man, and has my respect. Despite this, however, I think he's still relatively young, inexperienced, and a bit one-note to be a serious general-election candidate. Much like Mike Huckabee, he's appealing to social conservatives, but that's about it. He's not a complete enough package to seriously go the distance, and I think his results thus-far prove this point. As for Paul, I don't think I need to elaborate.

First off, no need to elaborate on Paul. Still, to be fair, a race this tense needs a comic relief. Wink

Anyway, that was intended as an open ended question, Cory. I've been following an intense debate from a group of people, many of whom I highly respect, who are pretty evenly split between Newt and Santorum. I think at this point I'm pretty familiar with the pros and cons of both candidates.....Actually, for what it's worth, Gingrich was originally my first choice.

The truth is, none of the candidates can fairly be considered one-note.....well, with the possible exception of Romney. Am I the only one sick of hearing how Romney's "electable!"? Rolling Eyes

Seeing as how I'm writing this at 2:00 A.M., I'd just like to point out that according several fairly reliable polls, he actually has the broadest range of support of all the remaining candidates. He's also been addressing the economy, particularly focusing on manufacturing.

Finally, in my own personal opinion, while he's not exactly as charismatic or entertaining as Gingrich, he manages to be the most trustworthy of the remaining candidates....to me, at least, that's a big deal.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not deluded into thinking he's anything but a long-shot. Nor do I think he's without his own faults. Still, I have more respect for him than Romney, and more confidence in him than Gingrich.

My 0.2

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:

Much like Mike Huckabee, he's appealing to social conservatives, but that's about it.

I'm not sure how you could apply that label to either Huckabee or Santorum....? Huckabee in particular had a wide range of economic points, in addition to a much broader appeal outside his base than you give him credit for. Before announcing that he wouldn't run, he was leading in several states that are well outside the typical Repulican base, like Maine.

Early national polls tend to be unreliable, so take this with a grain of salt. Still, that's not something a one-note candidate is likely to accomplish....

.......sorry for the rant Embarassed

Forsaken Lament 44 wrote:

I'm interested to know your feelings on the race thus far. How did you feel about Gingrich's response to the marital question at the CNN debate? Was the question-and more to the point: the interview with his ex-wife-justified only 2 days before the primary? Do you think Gingrich can maintain the momentum? Or will Romney regain his composure and take Florida??

Umm....I'm going to take a wild guess and bet on Romney winning Florida. [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

At this point, I think.......it's anybody's game. Technically Romney is leading at this point, followed by Santorum, then Gingrich. However, we've seen how quickly things can change, and as I mentioned above, Santorum isn't going to be able to coast under the radar anymore.

I think Michagin is going to be crucial for Romney. His single point is that he's "too big to fail" Wink is rapidly crumbling, and he's going to need a victory to avoid perception turning against him....of course, he's apparently ticked off quite a few people in the state, and Santorum's pro-manufacturing angle gives him an advantage apparently.




Anyway, enough of my ranting. How are things looking to you now? With all that's changed, do you think either Santorum or Gingrich will be able to become the "anti-Romney" candidate? Any thoughts?

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The war to end all Waaars is coming.

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The Grim(lin) reaper has come!

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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:29 am

Here's A hilarious take on Romney's campaign stategy that I found earlier today Razz


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The war to end all Waaars is coming.

R.I.P.qjr!

The Grim(lin) reaper has come!

Jordan.....Prepare for the Geno-cide!

We shall Battle and you shall Cry!

I'm SmashedBrother, but your Smashed Brothers!

Nobody messes with Texas!
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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:25 pm

Great video Smashed...especially since it's completely true. Sadly, as you may have already noticed, not only has Romney won Flordia, but has also carried Arizona and Michigan, which was a HUGE let-down for me...I really think Santorum had the momentum after his triple-wins in the midwest, but that last CNN debate was a big mistep on his part. In fact, I think if Santorum had done as well in that debate as he had in past debates, we'd be having a completely different conversation right now.

As for what the future holds, I think that Santorum has been badly damaged, and will likely fade away if he doesn't win Ohio (where he still currently has a lead, which of course could change after his loss). And moreover, it seems likely that Santorum and Gingrich will likely cancel eachother out on Super Tuesday, leaving Romney in an unchallenged position of strength. I think it's very possible, if not probable, that Romney will be the presumptive nominee at this time next week. Gingrich and Santorum can continue, but winning a few states, (and in Gingrich's case, just his home state) simply won't be enough. After a while, the numbers simply won't add up and the contest will be-for all intents and purposes-over.

Really a shame too...can you imagine the headlines and chaos which would insue if Santorum had won Michigan?? It really would have been a political maelstrom! And a heck of a lot of fun to watch... Laughing Oh well...I can't have everything I want. Crying or Very sad

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PostSubject: Re: Presidential Campaign 2012    Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:39 pm

Well, Romney did what he had to do. He won outside of that 1-2% range. If he had won in that range his win would have been characterized as "narrow" or a "squeaker", but now he gets the headline of winning both states period.

Having lost MI, I expect Ohio becomes a must-win for Santorum. At this point, the polls favor Santorum by double digits, but at least half of that is extremely soft. Between Romney's victories, and a likely last stand from Gingrich (who mainly takes away from Santorum) I expect the polls to be virtually tied there within the next few days.

Still, there are a few positives to take away, for those of us who don't care for Romney. First off, Romney is rapidly running out of favorable territory, most of which came early on in the process.

I've also been hearing that the MI scorched earth campaign finally managed to hurt his campaign financially, making a repeat in Ohio somewhat more difficult.

Finally, a large reason things have been so close is that Gingrich and Santorum are both working from the same base. (Gingrich's supporters would go for Santorum at about 3-1 I believe, while Santorum's were 2-1)

While I expect Gingrich to try and make a last stand, it's doubtful that he can overcome the poll numbers, which all have him fading....I don't expect him to drop out before Super Tuesday, but I think many of his supporters would give Santorum a second look, as long as he can remain relevant.

Of course, that last is a double-edged sword. Watch for Gingrich to start going negative on Santorum as we approach Super Tuesday...


My 0.2.

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Forsaken...Lament!

The war to end all Waaars is coming.

R.I.P.qjr!

The Grim(lin) reaper has come!

Jordan.....Prepare for the Geno-cide!

We shall Battle and you shall Cry!

I'm SmashedBrother, but your Smashed Brothers!

Nobody messes with Texas!
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